Realignments in the Middle East

Friends:

What used to be the most unstable area in the world, is going through a phase of realignment probably for a better and more pragmatic Middle East in the time to come. This realignment is part of the world-wide repositioning that started after the fall of the Soviet Union. The loss of the Soviet Union as a challenger to the West and the ceasure of the cold war, created a vacuum forcing a new competition, around the world. The turmoil that followed is definitely not over as yet. However, crystallization process has started and the liquid state of the new order is forming new polarization to cling to the new realities on the ground. Middle East is no exception to the rule. Being the supplier of the main source of energy around the world, Middle East does have the power of cash and wealth that would create new faces of the crystallization process and might even force the world to rethink about the status quo of the image of the Middle East. The future of the Middle East, in many ways would be shaped, based on the following factors and the new realities:

Iran's New Power Base:

The single most beneficiary from the recent wars in the Middle East has been an outsider, a country that has been trying desperately to make some headway in its pursuit of international recognition. They have been waiting on the wings to make some gains in terms of its relationship with the Middle Eastern countries. It was a blessing for them that was never intended in the first place. Turn of events somehow, has fulfilled their dreams of having a strong foothold in the Middle East along side other major players. Fall of Saddam Hussein has created a tremendous opportunity that they have been ushered with and they have taken the full advantage of the vacuum created in the area. Arming and training the Hezbollah in Lebanon, along with a formidable ally Syria, they have been able to establish a chain of power base in the area that stretches right across the heart of the Middle East. Their open west bashing technique has been working well for them and they are gaining new grounds over their competing forces in the area. Their links to Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, and other countries are creating a new wave of realization among the radicals and moderates alike.

The Shiaa and Sunni divide is even wining them new friends in the area. While the Sunni base is much larger, they are able to chip away the mass from underneath with their open social programs targeting the very poor. Their tacit support from the poor Sunnis is alarming for most of the Sunni lead governments in the area. While their support base remains to be the radical Shiaas, they have sympathetic and tacit support from the mass, who otherwise feels that the Sunni leadership is very much sold out to the west. For the first time in the history of Iran's post revolution, the ruling clerics have an ally in the executive government. Most of the ex-governments have played a more balanced role representing the moderate mass. The emergence of an ultra conservative government has sent red signals around and are bound to create new waves in the area creating new allies who are opposed to the western style democratic institutions. Other countries who are likely to fall into their laps are Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Algeria, Morocco, and may well be Yemen and Tunisia.

The Faltering Sunni Power Base

While the Shiaa population have doubled over the last decade, the Sunni population have waned considerably during the same time. Shiaas are becoming more known for their uncompromising attitude to the west and as such are being branded as the true defenders of Islam by the fellow Moslems. Recent war between Hizbollah and Israel have fermented a new thought among even the most liberal Islam that Shiaas would eventually defend Islam from the expansionist forces in the area and would lead the Moslems to victory as has been professed in Islamic scholars by many scholars. The closely neat shiaa community have shown the rest of the Islam that they are better organized as a community and that they are supportive of each other and that the pyramid structure of the community leadership is the true representation of Islamic living. This is just one of the strengths that have caught eyes of the poor Sunnis, who in spite of their wealth have failed to share that evenly with the poor.

While the Sunnis dominate the governance of the Islamic world, they lack a coordinated plan for their future as a community other than laying the bricks for some lavishly furnished and decorated mosques around in the poor Sunni nations. Shiaas on the other hand have built schools, managed a well coordinated education system that even reaches the houses of the very poor, housing for the homeless and the system for community loans for the very poor have uplifted the very spirits that binds them as a community. These are being noticed by all and are being talked about at great lengths in the houses and the coffee shops around. The lingering effect are being felt everywhere. The recent war between the Hezbollah and Israel was another scorer. For the first time, after so many wars with the Sunni Governments, a non governing entity has proven to the world what a small disciplined army can do to the one of the strongest armies around the globe. Even the gulf nations was startled by the outcome that took even the ruler of Qatar make public statements in favor of Hezbollah.

The Palestinians were left in the wilderness for about a year for electing a pro Islamic government. All aids were denied to them for expressing their democratic wishes. Who stood by them?..guess what..a Shiite government giving aid to a Sunni government in peril and dire need for funds. The Moslem world in the Middle East woke up in horror watching themselves being engulfed into a format of new lines in the sand being drawn by a non- Arab nation. A new realization is born. Pan Arabism is waning fast giving a new road map for a Pan Islamism lead by a non Arab nation.

The outcome of all these are shifting sands in the Middle East. The concept of Pan Arabism is being replaced by a different face of Islam that has the mantle for more radicalism and an alignment that has brought new nations into the equation.

to be continued...

Rial